The Hidden Psychology of Pandemics and Conspiracy Theories

Does history repeat itself? A meme has recently been making the rounds on social media claims that epidemics and pandemics follow a cyclical path; supposedly, a new pandemic occurs every 100 years. Among these are the Spanish Flu in 1919, the cholera outbreak in 1820 and the bubonic plague of the 1720’s. Actually, astrologers believe in a connection between Jupiter-Pluto conjunctions and pandemics. While virologists may scoff at such ideas, we can learn a lot by studying the history of pandemics of the past. Not only can we see how people typically behave in such circumstances, we can also discern the psychological causes for such reactions, and their characteristics.

Pandemics are a threat to the political order, as unrest creates chaos. The plague of Athens, from 430 to 427 BC, killed up to 100,000 people and was caused by typhoid. Occurring during the Peloponnesian War, it led to uprisings, chaotic behaviour and a government crackdown so severe that it resulted in the collapse of Athenian democracy.

Pandemics are also a breeding ground for conspiracy theories. During the Black Death of the 1300’s, a popular conspiracy was that Jews had spread the disease as a plot to wipe out Christianity. Thousands of Jews died in the pogroms that followed.

In the 18th century, pandemics created political and social chaos. The 1720 Plague of Marseille and the 1770 Plague of Moscow were both caused by shipping into the city. In Marseille, 50,000 people died during a two-year period, causing hospitals to overflow, with residents panicking as dead bodies piled in the streets. The Plague of Moscow killed up to 100,000 residents of Moscow, and the resulting quarantine and lockdown crippled the economy, which eventually resulted in riots as residents accused the officials of conspiracies, and demanded an end to quarantines.

In the 1830’s, a Cholera outbreak reached Great Britain from the Indian subcontinent, causing conspiracy theories that doctors were intentionally infecting patients to sell their bodies, and believing that the doctors were part of a government conspiracy to kill the poor. Enraged mobs attacked doctors on the streets, screaming “Bring out the Burkers!”, alluding to two doctors, Burk and Hare, who were convicted of murdering people to sell their corpses. Meanwhile when the Cholera epidemic reached the United States, Irish immigrants were blamed for it. Lastly, the Spanish Flu of 1918–1920 killed between 25 and 50 million people, causing rumours to spread that the virus had been released by the German army as a weapon.

Today, the coronavirus epidemic is spawning numerous conspiracy theories, leading to burning of 5G masts, denunciation of the WHO and Bill Gates, and people fighting in the streets. On the surface, it is easy to dismiss hysterical crowds as stupid, or to claim that conspiracy theories are simply there to find a scapegoat, usually foreigners, people who are different, or those in power. A closer look reveals much more.

We know that conspiracy theories tend to claim that a powerful group is plotting to destroy a group of people, a nation or even the whole world. But why do people persist in believing in them, even when the facts prove their theories wrong? The answer is that conspiracy theories are not about facts, but are about feelings and narrative. Meanwhile, there is often a slight basis of truth, or a mix of truth and lies which makes these theories alluring and tantalising for us.

Conspiracy theories reveal our emotions in a way that music, poetry, film and novels do; they reveal our subconscious fears and beliefs about the world.

In a crisis situation, people’s primitive emotional reactions are entirely predictable. We follow the stages of grief which are outlined by the Kugler-Ross model. As grief expert David Kessler explained it in a Podcast interview, “We are all dealing with the collective loss of the world we knew.”

The first reaction is shock, followed by disbelief. We remember seeing stunned observers breathlessly describing the towers crumbling on 9/11, or shocked teens, after a school shooting, expressing how “unreal” everything seemed. A typical reaction is that everything is “like a film”.

Denial is the next stage of grief, and we see a sense of denial in scenes of people ignoring what is happening, having “corona parties”, claiming that they are immune or claiming that the danger is overblown. Getting stuck in this phase can also be affected by cultural differences, especially those in which expressing anger is not socially accepted. Thus, in a time of disorientation, disorienting misinformation is sometimes easier to swallow than a complex truth.

We have seen this in the past, after school shootings: Psychologically immature people remain paralysed in this stage, creating conspiracy theories that the school shootings did not happen and were staged.

Nowadays, people claim that there is no corona virus, doubt the news media, and believe that almost literally everything we see is being faked. It’s easy to doubt our senses in a day and age with photoshop, online propaganda and government scandals and cover-ups. However, the “denial” conspiracy theories take it a step further. People stuck in this phase will refuse to do anything differently, balking at quarantines, wearing a mask or hand-washing.

Anger is the next stage. In a crisis such as the Corona crisis, people in some areas, such as Brazil, are angry that the government is not helping enough, whereas in other countries, such as Germany, people are convinced that the shutdown was too extreme. In the anger stage, people are irrational and lash out at anyone, including the elected officials, doctors, immigrants or anyone else. Cultural factors can cause a person or a group, and even a nation, to get stuck in this stage, especially if vulnerable feelings like sadness or fear are repressed.

While anger is itself neither good nor bad, misusing it to promote violence is a common tactic of political and religious groups on the far right or far left. In grief counselling, “Why me?” is often followed by, “Why not you?” against those not affected. Those stuck at this stage in a societal level will direct their anger on anyone who is not bearing the brunt of the catastrophe. In the wake of 9/11, for example, a rumour was spread by social media sites, claiming that no Jews died in the collapse of the World Trade Centre (which was obviously untrue), and that Orthodox Jews were seen celebrating at the time. Anger seeks a scapegoat, and emotionally weak people get stuck in this stage, playing the blame game and playing the role of the angry victim. Meanwhile, anger mixed with denial feeds into paranoid conspiracy theories which explain everything as a plot by the government or evil elitists. Anger can, of course, be channeled into positive action: action to help those in need, or taking steps to prevent a similar catastrophe.

The bargaining stage involves attempting to negotiate or gain control of the situation. We see people trying to find ways to prevent or mitigate the problem. At this stage, people want some kind of “magical cure”, either a religious one (by praying) or a secular one (alternative medicine or homemade remedies, such as silver water, bleach, salt water, etc.). At this stage, people will grasp at straws, seeking in vain for a way out. It is imperative that they not be given false hope. At its best, this stage can help a person to open up to change, new ideas and new opportunities. At its worst, people will seek out a conspiracy theory that simplifies a complex problem, often in the form of the “health secret the government does not want you to know”.

The next stages are the most negative ones. Guilt and depression follow anger, and on the political level, it means grieving for what will never return. People blame themselves for not having done more and can be stuck in toxic shame if they feel they did not do enough. At this passive stage, life comes to a standstill as people survey their losses. During pandemics, religious people often interpret an epidemic as the wrath of God, appealing to people in the guilt stage of grief.

After going through these stages, acceptance and hope are the last and final stages.
Fortunately, people with strong coping skills and resilience can go through these stages without getting permanently stuck or resorting to magical thinking.

So now that we know about how people react during a pandemic, the question remains: why are some people so vulnerable to believing conspiracy theories, especially when some of them are so absurd? It’s easy to dismiss anyone protesting the government as a kook, or to see these people as stupid. However, as we have seen, people who are grieving loss are at the mercy of powerful, primal emotions, and conspiracy theories which tap into these emotions are more about feelings than facts.

These theories follow familiar patterns, and like a fairy tale or comic book, they simplify life’s ambiguities into tales of absolute good and absolute evil. Half-truths are mixed with fancifully spun narratives, in which all of humanity are divided into passive sheep and enlightened heroes. They follow a dystopian, pessimistic and often fatalistic view of life. Instead of complex solutions, they present simplistic solutions such as a “magic remedy”.
The appeal, however, is paradoxical: we are offered affirmation that the world is not out of control, and that powerful forces are at work. However, the dystopian, sinister aspect means that those in power are evil, not good. Ironically, believers of conspiracy theories believe that they are “free thinkers”, but they also tend to find great relief in being told exactly what they want to believe, and are thus relieved of the burden of having to figure out complex problems on their own.

Some believers in conspiracy theories are content with the affirmation that they are “in the know” and better than the authorities and experts. The narrative allows them to be the heroes of their own lives, and spread the message to others. For the truly dedicated believer, however, there are only two choices: fatalism or rebellion. And since rebellion against a shadowy elite is futile, the narrative of doom demands a fiery martyrdom. This is the political and social danger of conspiracy theories– that they, in the end, almost demand a violent response.

They are truly the modern form of post-religious secular theology, in which vast, superior elites control all of the world, much like the myths of ancient Greece and Rome explained all tragedies as displeasure of the gods and goddesses.

Like the child crying over the monster under his bed, these people are not seeking facts, but comfort and order in a cold, chaotic world. These narratives are factually incorrect, but they are emotionally real, and they show us the fears that we have been avoiding: fear of death, fear of illness, fear of government control, and fear of the rich and powerful who control so much of our lives.

People who fall for these ideas are vulnerable because they feel powerless and vulnerable. Bereft of the mature coping skills that resilient adults have, they often remain stuck in a stage of grieving, making them easy prey to those who misuse conspiracy theories for political or social gain. It is easier than ever for foreign governments, propaganda networks, hustlers of fake medicine or fake alternative gurus to mislead the gullible.

So how do we counteract conspiracy theories and fake news? The well-known tactic of using facts to dispel conspiracy theories makes as much sense as trying to convince a four-year-old that monsters don’t exist. Instead, politicians and the media need to acknowledge people’s fears and concerns, rational or not, and help vulnerable people get through their grieving process through dialogue. We also need better mental health resources, so people suffering from anxiety or depression can get the help they need.

References:
Evans, R. Why Pandemics Create Conspiracy Theories, New Statesman
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/04/why-pandemics-create-conspiracy-theories
Astro Twins, Plagues and Pandemics.Jupiter-Pluto Conjunctions in History– What Astrology Knows
https://astrostyle.com/plagues-pandemics-jupiter-pluto-conjunctions-in-history-what-astrology-knows/
Coronavirus and the Plague: The disease of viral conspiracy theories
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-and-the-plague-the-disease-of-viral-conspiracy-theories/a-52700321
Bronstad, D. Stages of Grief and Recovery.
https://www.stages-of-grief-recovery.com/7-stages-of-grief.html
Cherry, K. Understanding Grief in the Age of the COVID-19 Pandemic
https://www.verywellmind.com/understanding-grief-in-the-age-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-4801931
Changing Minds: The Kugler-Ross Grief Cycle
http://changingminds.org/disciplines/change_management/kubler_ross/kubler_ross.htm